One lesson of 2016's presidential election was that Democrats needed to do a better job courting socially moderate working-class voters who disdain woke progressivism—the kinds of voters who hate political correctness and are distrustful of the social elites who enforce it. This demographic flocked to Donald Trump, handing him narrow victories in the key swing states that decided the election.
This is a phenomenon that could very well repeat itself in 2020, if a recent New York Times poll is any evidence. The survey shows Trump losing to Joe Biden, the comparatively moderate former vice president, but besting both Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D–Mass.) and Bernie Sanders (I.–Vt.).
The poll honed in on six states that will likely decide the election: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Arizona, and Florida. Here's what they found:
"The Times/Siena results and other data suggest that the president's advantage in the Electoral College relative to the nation as a whole remains intact or has even grown since 2016, raising the possibility that the Republicans could—for the third time in the past six elections—win the presidency while losing the popular vote," writes The New York Times' Nate Cohn.
As Cohn notes, we are still a year away from the election and a lot could change. But historically, these kinds of head-to-head polls have been very accurate, even when taken a year in advance. "On average over the last three cycles, head-to-head polls a year ahead of the election have been as close to the final result as those taken the day before," writes Cohn. And Trump's base of support has proven remarkably stable over the course of his presidency, suggesting that new developments over the next year might not effect his standings.