I realize that I'm going to be the skunk at the picnic among some in the GOP for writing this, but if the election were held today, Romney would probably lose. Two surveys released within hours of each other by CNN and Fox report Obama up by 7 and 9 points respectively. The swing states tell the story: the Real Clear Politics average has Obama up by 7 in Pennsylvania, 5 in Ohio, and 3 in Virginia; Obama leads by slim margins in Florida and Colorado. Respected elections analyst Nate Silver has Romney's chance of winning at 38.5 percent, which is better than how it looks on Intrade, which gives Romney a 27 percent shot at winning.
With unemployment still above 8 percent and 2/3 of the country thinking that we’re going in the wrong direction, why is Obama still ahead? Is every poll other than Rasmussen flawed or biased?
Just about every week this summer, Democrats have launched a new attack against Romney, and they'll keep doing this as long as it's working. The last thing Obama wants to do is talk about fixing the economy. He has no idea how to do this. He knows hiking taxes on the rich won't do anything to stop the ticking debt bomb or create jobs. So he and his supporters spend most of their time creating diversions and demonizing Romney. They've branded Romney as a tax-dodging, chauvinist, out-sourcer in chief with a car elevator. As for Romney, has spent a lot of time raising money (which is important) and he’s done that well. But he has not launched the type of aggressive messaging and counter-offensive necessary to beat the campaign of a Saul Alinsky acolyte. An effective rapid response team would have nailed Obama on the SuperPac cancer ad—“We’re all getting sick—sick of this poisonous style of campaigning. And sick of politicians like President Obama who blame others for their broken promises and failed policies.” Instead Romney’s spokeswoman responds by lauding universal healthcare in Massachusetts. Terrible. And when Obama scored with the “Romneyhood” line, the best Romney’s communications team could come up with is “Obamaloney”? Really?
Conservatives are worried for a reason. They’ve seen this movie and they know how it ends—in defeat.
Romney’s team should be going into the Republican National Convention 7 pts up, not down. He must regain this lost ground over the next few weeks, and he shouldn’t rely on his VP pick to help much. This is his to win or lose. Point by point, he must give the voters a sober, brutally exacting description of how dire the situation is for America. Then he needs to hit the trail with a road show to explain how his policies will begin to turn things around. This is what he did so well at Bain. Both the country and his own campaign, need his stellar crisis management skills that saved the 2002 Olympics. We as Americans don’t have to lower our expectations. Romney’s team must expose the Obama record, and elevate the campaign away from the Obama distractions. Engage the public in a serious conversation about saving this country we love. This will make the president seem petty and unserious by comparison.