|
| October 4, 2011 |
Recession chances rise to 40%, unemployment could hit 9.5%
Posted by Staff |
|
|
CNBC reports:
Odds that the U.S. economy will enter recession are now close to 50-50 as unemployment heads on a path higher and pressures from Europe intensify, Goldman Sachs economists said.
Jan Hatzius, Goldman's chief US economist, pegged recession chances at 40 percent and said the jobless rate is likely to surge to the mid-9 percent range in 2012.
While that still jibes with the firm's forecast that a recession — or two consecutive quarters of negative growth — is not the most likely scenario, the warning signs flashed Tuesday underscore concerns about European debt contagion on an already fragile US economy.
"Ultimately, it's a judgment call," Hatzius said during a conference call. "We're basically indicating that we think the risk is sizeable and elevated, especially given the already underway deterioration in the labor market, although it's a gradual one. Historically, U.S. business cycles have been quite vulnerable to rising unemployment and deteriorating dynamics in the labor market." |
| 10/4/11 10:06 AM |
| Discuss This Entry |
| E-Mail |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| << Back to Need to Know |
|
Del.icio.us
Facebook
Fark
Furl
Google
Newsvine
Reddit
Yahoo
