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November 4, 2008
Laura's E-Blast - November 4, 2008
Posted by Staff
  • McCain can win. Here's how, via Bill Kristol:
    McCain would have to win every state where he now leads or is effectively even in the polls (including North Carolina, Indiana and Missouri). He'd have to take Florida and Ohio, where he's about four points down but where operatives on the ground give him a pretty good shot. That gets him to 247 of the 270 votes needed.

    McCain's path to victory is then to snatch Pennsylvania (which gets him to 268), and win either Virginia, Colorado, Nevada or New Mexico (states where he trails by about four to seven points) -- or New Hampshire, where he's 10 points behind but twice won dramatic primary victories.
  • Here's an alternative path, via John McCormack:
  • Colorado - Obama leads 51/47, after last week's 50/46. Within the MOE, but not much movement.
  • Florida - McCain leads 50/49, after trailing 51/47 last week. Definitely moving towards McCain.
  • Missouri - Dead heat at 49 all, after Obama led 48/47 last week. Movement to McCain.
  • North Carolina - McCain 50/49, after being up 49/48 last week.
  • Ohio - Tied at 49, after Obama led 49/45 last week. Movement to McCain.
  • Virginia - Obama leads 51/47, same as last week.
  • Nevada - Obama leads 49/43.

    During the Democratic primaries, Hillary Clinton did 3 points better on Election Day than she did in the final Real Clear Politics averages of polls for Ohio and Pennsylvania. It's possible that McCain might outperform the polls in Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada by four or five points.

    And, of course, McCain would only need one of those three states if he pulls off an upset in Pennsylvania, where he's currently trailing by 7.6 points according to RCP. But remember that Hillary Clinton was down by 8 points in New Hampshire before she eked out a dramatic 2 point win in the Democratic primary.
  • Today's Election Day and Sen. Obama still leads in national polling. The question: What more does Obama have to do to prove he's unfit for the presidency? Have extensive ties with terrorists? Check. Proclaim America's founding document to be "fundamentally flawed"? Check. Threaten to bankrupt an industry that provides half this country's juice? Check. Promise to weaken America's military, empower the United Nations, boost the standing of the world's tyrants. Check, check, check. Push an economic plan ripped from the pages of Karl Marx? Check. Denounce self-interest -- i.e., the lifeblood of a market economy -- as "selfishness"? Check. Have a late-game revelation about an aunt who's an illegal alien enjoying public assistance, ignoring deportation orders, and making illegal campaign contributions to Obama? Check, check, and check.

    Sure, America could use a change in focus, but that doesn't mean the most radical departure possible will somehow pay the biggest dividends. On the contrary. Everything Obama threatens to do will actually weaken America and her standing in the world.

  • 11/4/08 5:00 PM
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