ith an eye on the upcoming congressional elections, there is a great deal of speculation about what is going to happen in 2014 to Republicans, who are divided and subdivided: Establishment vs. Tea Party, social conservatives vs. libertarians, military hawks vs. deficit hawks, etc. Prognostications about how those tensions are going to play out should be informed by what is not
going to happen — for example, the United States of America in 2014 is not on the precipice of: 1) abolishing abortion; 2) restoring the marriage culture of the Eisenhower years; 3) returning to a prelapsarian constitutional order; 4) transforming itself into what we used to think of as a Swedish-style welfare state before Sweden reformed itself; 5) being overrun by jihadists; 6) being overtaken economically or militarily by China; 7) approaching the terminal point on the road to serfdom; 8) politically and morally repudiating its election and reelection of Barack Obama; 9) undergoing a generations-spanning ideological realignment; or 10) possessing a rational electorate. Feel free to check me on these this time next year.